Week 4: Prognosticating the Patriot

Ouch. The collective efforts of the Patriot League took a beating last week at the hands of our long time rivals, the Ivy League. For the first time in, well, maybe ever, the Ivy's swept every game against the Patriot League. The lone survivor was Lehigh who thankfully had the week off. It was not pretty folks.

This week gives us a break against the Ivies, featuring a league contest and a match up against one of the best teams in the nation. In addition, two teams are able to take a breather this week and hopefully regroup to some winning ways. We have nowhere to go but up!

Fordham at Lafayette

Last week Fordham made the Ivy sweep complete, losing to Columbia by 6 in the nightcap. Lafayette fell victim earlier in the day as well, losing to Princeton for the second year in a row, this time at home.

On paper, the advantages all go to Lafayette. The game is at home, the Leopards have a few wins under their belt, and Fordham has appeared to take a step back with every game so far. That said, this season so far has proven that there are no givens when it comes to I-AA football.

Lafayette will need to have a healthy quarterback at the helm as it appears Mauer was not 100% against Princeton with a hip pointer. The Leopards waited in taking out their starter last week and they are probably kicking themselves over it. Back up Pat Davis (who actually split time with Mauer in the beginning last year) proved very capable in his season debut. If Lafayette waivers on their quarterback decision again this week, it could open up some possibilities for the Rams.

The Leopards will also need to find their running game again as tailback Jonathan Hurt was held to only 46 yards on the day.

For Fordham, plenty of changes will need to take place in order for the Rams to pull off the upset. A quarterback must emerge to take charge of this team, Prydatko must be given the chance to continue to carry the load in the backfield and the defense needs to come to play on every down. Most importantly, the coaching staff needs to find a way to get this 0-3 team believing they can play like winners. The second season for Fordham starts right now.

In the end, Lafayette will need to play a better ball game then they did against Princeton to win if Fordham plays a better game then they did against Columbia. Unfortunately for the Rams, the odds are currently that Lafayette will rebound faster than Fordham will get going in the right direction. My predictions this year have been horrible so far, so a Fordham upset would frankly not surprise me; but for now, I have to call a Leopard win here.

Predicted outcome: Lafayette 24 Fordham 10

Georgetown at Stony Brook

For two schools that have very little in common institutionally, their football programs sure have plenty. You can start with the fact that both schools have beaten Bucknell and you can end with the fact that both schools were soundly beaten last week; Georgetown by Brown and Stony Brook by Hoftsra.

So what the heck does a guy have to go on here to make a prediction? My first inclination is to think that the game's out on Long Island and the Hoyas, much less the entire Patriot League, haven't done too hot against NEC teams recently. My other inclination is to think that, with this season, maybe I need to apply the (George) Costanza Theory when it comes to picks: I need to pick the opposite of what I would normally do. That would mean Georgetown.

In the end, it's a toss up. So I'll toss it up. Heads Hoyas, tails Seawolves. Tossing... Tails: Seawolves it is.

Predicted outcome: Stony Brook 17 Georgetown 7

Lehigh at VMI

Lehigh had the week off and is probably thanking their lucky stars for it. With injuries to heal and the potential let down game after Delaware, they too could have slipped up last week against an Ivy. Their foes this week, VMI, took a beat down and a pay check from I-A Duke in their previous game.

If everyone is healthy, and even if everyone is not, Lehigh should take control of this game early and ride it out to victory in preparation for Harvard next week. VMI has been mediocre since, well, longer than I've been alive so a Keydet win here would be a very large upset. Lehigh could get caught looking forward but they are most likely still stinging from the defeat in the Tub. I think they might have a game much like the Monmouth opener: no matter how it started out, in the end, a large margin of victory.

Predicted outcome: Lehigh 41 VMI 18

Holy Cross at Delaware

The toughest task for the Patriot League this weekend belongs to Holy Cross for the second time in a row. The Crusaders lost a respectable game against Harvard last Saturday and now face the nationally ranked Blue Hens of Delaware, who beat West Chester last weekend. Tough out of conference schedule there Holy Cross!

A trip to the Tub is tough for any team (just ask Lehigh) and it won't be any different for the Saders. An upset of Harvard last week might have got my wheels turning, but while Holy Cross looks to have come a long way since two years ago, they still came up short. Delaware certainly won't be any easier than Harvard, so all signs point to the first Blue Hen win over the Holy Cross program (granted, it has been a while since they met).

Then again, that darn Costanza Theory is out there, lingering like a gnat on a humid day. Have I just done what I always do? Could this be this week's shocker in a season so far filled with I-AA shockers? Could Holy Cross play the David role to Delaware's Goliath better than Lehigh could (who wasn't actually the little guy at all)? I'd love to be the genius who picks this upset if it were to happen, but I just can't pull the trigger. Something is holding me back. I think it's called sanity... Good luck Holy Cross, but this one should be all Delaware.

Predicted outcome: Delaware 41 Holy Cross 20

Colgate and Bucknell are idle. (thank goodness!)

Last week's record 2-4. Season record 7-11. Crap!!!